// Track Record
Transparent performance history — every prediction logged, no cherry-picking
Total Trades
2
Resolved
2
Wins
0
Losses
2
Win Rate
0.0%
Avg Return
-100.0%
Pending
0
Sharpe
0.00
| Date | Market | Signal | Entry | AI % | Edge | Exit | Status | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY YES | 21.5% | 42.5% | +21.0% | 0.0% | LOST | -100.0% |
| 2026-03-21 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BUY YES | 0.9% | 26.3% | +25.4% | 0.0% | LOST | -100.0% |
| 2026-03-21 | Sarah Huckabee Sanders - 2028 GOP Nomination? | SKIP | 0.9% | 2.9% | +2.0% | — | PENDING | — |
| 2026-03-21 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SKIP | 5.5% | 4.7% | -0.8% | — | PENDING | — |
| 2026-03-21 | Iranian regime falls by March 31? | SKIP | 1.3% | 5.0% | +3.8% | — | PENDING | — |
Every edge signal ≥ 5% absolute is logged as a prediction.
Entry price = Polymarket price at signal time.
AI probability = 5-formula pipeline output (EV, Bayesian, Kelly, base rates, KL divergence).
Exit = Market resolution price (0 or 100 for resolved, current for pending).
P&L = (Exit - Entry) for BUY YES, (Entry - Exit) for BUY NO.
+ Crucix OSINT Engine (27+ sources)
+ OpenBB Financial Data (Treasury, Crypto, Commodities)
+ TimesFM Time-Series Forecasting
+ RF-DETR Visual Intelligence
+ LLM Narrative Analysis (Ollama)
+ Polymarket Gamma API
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice. All predictions are logged in real-time and cannot be retroactively modified.